Romania, Moldova and the Current Picture of the World
~by Veronica Bicer
Romania: Catalyst of the Moldavian Orange Revolution
At this hour of history Romania's concern should not be Moldova, but its integration into the EU, the quest to find the best position it can get on the global map.
Romania, from its highest-ranking politicians to the common people, is currently manipulated by the US' need and greed to terminate the USSR once and for all. The US is using both certain individuals’ lust for power, as well as the weak minds of naive Romanians to fuel the quotidian circus, at the same time planning to benefit from the flesh of the common people in upcoming military confrontations, if necessary.
The US’ insistence in planting military bases on the ex-Soviet block territory raises Russia’s appetite for an increasing military collaboration with the East European states, both the American and the Russian weapons supply for the militarization of the Russian sphere of influence, able to turn these territories into open guerilla battlefields like Yugoslavia has been not too long ago.
Even if Moldova was theoretically decoupled from Russian influence, with the occasion of the elections set to take place on the 6-th of March, it will never return to the “mother country”, like the Romanian governors who shamelessly quote from the CIA’s memoirs want to make us believe.
Moldova will never be able to become a naturally integrated part of Romania, simply because the present political realities of the 21-st century do not allow this any longer.
The scenarios that are played now in Moldova simply seek to turn it into another star in the huge American constellation, hungrily swallowed and then placed on the American flag amongst other easy captures.
Completely blinded by their historical lethargy and also by the US’ brainwashing technique constantly broadcast on the Romanian TV channels recently “freed” by CNN, which, besides a fierce anti-communism, promotes a dangerous policy of fueling nationalist pro-Moldavian and at the same time anti-Hungarian feelings, Romanians find themselves ravaged by memories steadily evoked for them by the US’ manipulators.
Daily staging harmful scenarios in the internal policy of Romania, the above-mentioned manipulators aim to create political turmoil, suitable background for a failure of Romania’s integration into the EU in 2007.
Back to Moldova, both newspapers and TV channels constantly recall for the public opinion the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact, referring to the setting up of Romania's Eastern border on the Prut, which would in fact mean requesting the cancellation of the political-territorial consequences of the Peace Treaty of 1947 (the Treaty that legally consecrated this territorial reality), at present the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact being totally irrelevant for the configuration of Romania's borders.
Putin’s Bold Economic Plans for Eastern Europe
But while Romanians crave Moldova, Putin seems to have another plan in mind, completely strange from all the historical ballyhoo carefully highlighted in the Romanian media with the purpose of distracting the Romanian public from the real problems of the contemporary World and of fuelling an artificial nationalist anger that could be useful to the process of US interventions in Russia and also, very importantly, into the fragile EU.
Due to the conservatism and to the distorted information that constantly flood their ears few realize that territories, especially between the states that benefit from weak political strength in the interrelationship with the World, don't mean anything in the current global context without one thing: the energy power.
Apart from the realities of modern war, never declared but waged in more and more key spots on the World map with diverse weapons, from terrorist scenarios to dangerous military technology that hit the very natural defensive system of the Earth, the common people’s lack of knowledge has turned them into human weapons of the global war, actors persuaded by an unknown film director into enjoying the false illusions of prosperity promised by the velvet revolutions.
Considering the realities of the present international context, Putin seems to think fueling the US' Cold War dream of staging orange revolutions in some states in the former USSR, in order to give to the US the sensation that they are miraculously and finally able to advance forward, straight into the den of their secular enemy: the Kremlin - (see the anti-Fradkov-Putin demonstrations the US keeps staging in Russia).
All these unbelievable political events occur while Putin, in the backstage, seems to pull the economic threads of all these neighbouring freshly orange states.
The proofs are his latest diplomatic interventions in Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Serbia and the Kaliningrad region, expressions of his economic view on Russia’s need of a buffer zone of stable and friendly countries around it.
Concretely, the Russian president proposes military cooperation with all the states mentioned above, as well as economic collaboration in the energy sphere as it follows:
The Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will visit Kiev to discuss with Ukraine issues of common interest like the presence of Russia's Black Sea Fleet on Ukrainian territory, the Transdniestrian settlement, interaction in the fuel and energy sector of both states, as well as the issue of military collaboration.
Russia regards its Kaliningrad exclave as a tool for the promotion of Russian-EU economic integration, staging reasons to defend its borders, like the recent scandal of a major drug trafficking channel meant to deliver cocaine “all over Russia”, drug dealers that were skillfully trapped by the Drug police of the Kaliningrad Region, the Russian media says.
Russia’s proposals are to resume construction of the second Bulgarian nuclear power plant (Belene) within the next three months, to boost the oil and gas trade with Hungary, as well as to take part in the development of the economy of Serbia, including the process of privatization, the Russian leadership emphasizing the need for more developed contacts in the energy and gas sphere with Serbia and Montenegro and also in the banking sector, with Russia proposing the formation of joint banks with the two ex-Yugoslavian states.
For Romania, besides the joint project calling for the modernization of a large-capacity thermal power plant, the Russian leadership has prepared to call into operation the second unit of the nuclear plant Cernavoda and also to complete the unfinished work at the third and the forth units of the nuclear plant, work that the initiators and managers of the nuclear project (Canada and the US) have deliberately put on hold for a decade and a half.
15 years after the anti-communist revolution, the Cernavoda nuclear plant finds itself in the awkward situation that none of the 4 units remaining in the construction phase after Ceausescu’s disappearance have been finalized.
The only unit ever called into operation was inaugurated during Ceausescu's time and now provides about 10% of Romania’s electricity requirements, saving millions of dollars in oil imports.
Russia’s Need for a Change in its External Policy
Putin’s “orange revolution” scheme, eagerly applied by the US in Russia’s important sphere of influence, could probably be designed to complicate the enemy, in order to gain time to fortify the BRIC alliance while keeping a vigilant eye on Russia’s sphere of influence, at the same time trying to spread Russia’s tentacles all over the World in search of oil (see South America) and for gold (see South Africa).
It could be an emergency scheme being applied by Russia, after the Berlin wall that, for four decades, protected the two Cold War foes from painful clashes, has crashed.
For more than a year now, due to the coming into force of the harmful treaties Putin’s predecessors have recklessly signed with the US, the clashes between the interests of the two superpowers occurring on ex-Soviet territory (see Georgia and the Baltics), an emergency change in the policy of Kremlin has become a must.
The goal of this new Russian external policy line that promises neither to be fruitful nor devoid of risks, is to acquire a decent level of leverage to allow the Russian president to raise his voice when it comes to crucial issues for his country, internationally.
After all, who was the one that said YES to the orange revolution last fall and who said a couple of years ago that his wildest dream is to see Venezuela?
These both events (the orange revolution in Ukraine and Putin's visit to Venezuela) occurred almost simultaneously.
The strikingly coincidental timing has put a big question mark on the whole Ukraine operation, which, most of the press agreed, occurred with Putin's consent.
Putin probably wants to complicate the chessboard game, thinking that he could gain something from all this, as it is hard to believe that while his buddy Chavez sings communist songs into Bush’s ears, accompanied by Lula and Castro, Putin isn’t able to guard his most important neighbouring territories from the US' scenarios.
On the other hand, it appears that Putin has now considered enticing Bush to attack Iran. In this moment Putin looks like nothing but a catalyst of the Iran conflict, which, it's true, was lingering there on the US' military agenda for a long time.
However, Putin had no interest in hastening the US' operation in Iran, knowing very well that if the US manages to link Iran to the EU by a gas pipeline, the diplomatic efforts he has performed all these years with the (almost achieved) purpose of trying to draw Western Europe by his side, will simply fall apart.
All these events seem to have been carefully planed and, if not all, at least a large part of them could have been discussed with Bush in advance.
Putin's Hermetic Medium Term Plan
Threatening to regain Russia’s economic presence in Iraq, Putin’s plan could therefore be to try to trap the US in the Middle East. Russia has announced its intentions to resume work on certain Iraqi-based projects during a Russian-Arab Business Council session, in Beirut, Lebanon.
Worth mentioning is that the US is already trapped in Iraq and that to conquer Iran is an even tougher task, considering the religious convictions of the Iranian population.
Lately, Putin hasn proved willing to ease neither the nuclear stance on Iran nor the arms sales to Syria, although he probably could do that, in exchange for asking the US for more observance of the borders of Russia’s sphere of influence. But it looks like Putin prefers to ally with South America instead of defending his own backyard.
Russia’s almost defiant position is very interesting, considering the calculus Putin has made as far as Iran’s fate and ending with the announcement that he plans to visit Iran himself. Conscious of the fact that he won’t be able to defend Iran from the US’ aggression alone, he planed to hand over Iran’s defense problem to India and China, just like it did with Kazakhstan, waking up the appetite of India and China for alliance with Russia. India and China have been therefore enticed with Iranian oil and gas resources, the price the two Asian states are now asked to pay being to guard Iran from US aggression.
The concrete project Russia is hasting to forge now is the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline, meant to supply India with Iranian gas. A fierce economic-geopolitical battle between the US and Russia is in full fling there, as India is also studying the American backed Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan alternate gas pipeline project, which is scheduled to be extended also to China.
Significantly, Chinese state oil company Sinopec operates the Iranian Yadavaran field, for which it signed in November 2004 an agreement to buy oil and gas from Iran and to develop the oil field.
The prospect of Beijing increasing its reliance on Iranian energy sparked concern in Washington, as the US was spearheading international efforts to curb Iran's nuclear programme.
On the other hand, as a result of a deal Iran has signed in Delhi, now India holds a 20% stake in Yadavaran, Iran 30%, while China retains its existing 50% share.
At the same time Putin tries to achieve the equilibrium of forces between Russia and the Asian powers, taking care to keep China on tenterhooks with the promised oil pipeline branch to Daging.
According to the facts above and considering the hypothesis that Putin intends to entice the US into Iran, as the Iraq experience has shown that the US doesn’t have many chances to win any war it starts in the Middle East, the big question that needs an answer is: why Bush considers playing Putin's game?
It could be that Iran has threatened to switch the price of its oil into Euros, a move that the American market couldn't bear and so the US will be forced to play the Iranian card with all the risks that derive from it. The US might win, but it also might lose, if not the war with Syria and Iran in itself, at least a large amount of money, human and moral capital, as it constantly does in Iraq.
Meanwhile, drawing a red herring across the path of the US’ plans, Putin probably hopes to gain the necessary leverage to provide him the position to be able at some point to demand the USSR back, as it is hard to believe that he is as fond of the Latin beauties, as to prefer them to the indigenous ones, so to speak...
It is hard to say what a political leader has in mind and by now no clear trend in the Russian external policy has crystallized yet, so it is difficult to draw a safe prognostic on Putin's medium term plan.
The EU Response to the US’ Tough Stance
However, what is clear is that the US does anything in its power to hinder Putin’s efforts to restore the power of the USSR and it does that by any means.
The US hence tries to create useful leverage in order to keep the EU close for an eventual military intervention that could be needed in the Middle East, against the freshly restored Lebanon-Syria-Iran axis.
The US is keen to demonstrate to the EU how vulnerable that is, proving that while it is not even able to ratify its own constitution, it's only natural that the current pro-Russian regimes in France and Germany can be replaced anytime with more polite and cooperative ones, definitely more receptive to the American cause.
The US presses the EU with the decreasing value of the dollar, creating huge problems in the European economic core, from the temporary destabilization of the European market, to the unavoidable increase in unemployment, to protests and ultimately to generalized political chaos.
In response, especially that Bush visits Europe this week, the EU leaders have to be quiet and yield (it is hard to estimate how much) to US' pressure.
They will certainly simulate at least some cordial gestures meant to show their willingness to cooperate with the US and implicitly against Russia in key issues concerning tough spots on the World map, like the fiery Middle East.
Just like it did in Haiti, France has already expressed its solidarity with the orange revolution set to take place in Lebanon.
Last Week the Kyoto Protocol Came into Force
As the generalized war in the Middle East seems unavoidable, Putin has considered speculating in Russia’s interest another ardent American problem: natural disasters, with the aim of pushing for closer ties with the European Union.
Excessively mediated after the Tsunami disaster took place, the American eagerness of flooding South Asia with a wave of sympathy is well known.
The US, being the World’s biggest polluter hasn’t agreed to sign the Kyoto protocol for internal economic reasons, a weakness in Bush’s policy that couldn’t escape the attention of the speculative Russian president.
Making the best of the juncture, Russia has hence stated that the time had come to monitor approaching disasters from space, proposing the concrete establishment of such a system.
The Russian website RIA Novosti announced that “Russia has proposed the establishment of a global international system to monitor the Earth's surface from space” and that “this year the European Space Agency together with Italy's National Institute for Nuclear Physics and a number of the country's universities plans to launch a project to study new ways to predict earthquakes from space”.
“Importantly, there is not only the science and technology to do this, but also a political basis: the interaction mechanism contained in the Kyoto protocol.” was underlined in the article.
The US’ steady opposition to Russia’s proposal of building a joint space shield together with the EU is well known.
Like Bush’s aggressive intervention in South Asia, which relied on the earthquake alibi, Russia's promising program of allegedly predicting locations where and when a natural disaster will occur (named the Vulkan system) is in fact a clever attempt at legalization of the Russian-EU space military collaboration, a skillful diplomatic trick the Russian leadership has trapped the Bush administration into, in response to the Tsunami events.
However, being pretty vast and requiring the recall of the progress both Russia and the US have made in the military sphere, this topic would require a separate article.
REFERENCES:
ROMANIA'S RELATIONS WITH THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA
http://studint.ong.ro/moldova.htm
* Putin’s Bold Economic Plans for Eastern Europe
DIVERSE AGENDA OF RUSSIAN AND UKRAINIAN FOREIGN MINISTERS' TALKS IN KIEV
http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=5428465&startrow=31&date=2005-02-18&do_alert=0
HUGE DRUG CHANNEL BLOCKED IN RUSSIA
http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=5424853&startrow=1&date=2005-02-17&do_alert=0
Bulgaria to Resume Nuclear Plant Construction Within Three Months - Official
http://www.bgnewsnet.com/story.php?lang=en&sid=19462
RUSSIA HOPES TO WIN BULGARIAN NUCLEAR POWER PLANT CONTRACT
http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=5365297&startrow=1&date=2005-02-01&do_alert=0
RUSSIA BOOSTS FUEL AND ENEGY SUPPLIES TO HUNGARY
http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=159&msg_id=5424316&startrow=1&date=2005-02-17&do_alert=0
SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO, RUSSIA'S STRATEGIC PARTNER IN THE BALKANS
http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=159&msg_id=5420885&startrow=1&date=2005-02-16&do_alert=0
Cernavoda Units 1 and 2 -Cernavoda, Romania
http://www.aecl.ca/index.asp?layid=3&menuid=215&csid=73
RUSSIA AND ROMANIA TO IMPLEMENT JOINT PROJECTS IN ENERGY SPHERE
http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=159&msg_id=5414255&startrow=1&date=2005-02-15&do_alert=0
* Putin's Hermetic Medium Term Plan
PUTIN TO VISIT IRAN
http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=5430525&startrow=1&date=2005-02-19&do_alert=0
Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline deal to be finalized
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-02/20/content_2596746.htm
India finds a $40bn friend in Iran
http://atimes01.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/GA11Df07.html
China to develop Iran oil field
http://www.google.ro/url?sa=U&start=1&q=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3970855.stm&e=7317
The Real Reasons Why Iran is the Next Target: The Emerging Euro-denominated International Oil Marker
http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/CLA410A.html
* Last week the Kyoto protocol came into force
DISASTERS ON EARTH CAN ONLY BE FORECAST FROM SPACE
http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=5414544&startrow=41&date=2005-02-15&do_alert=0
Romania: Catalyst of the Moldavian Orange Revolution
At this hour of history Romania's concern should not be Moldova, but its integration into the EU, the quest to find the best position it can get on the global map.
Romania, from its highest-ranking politicians to the common people, is currently manipulated by the US' need and greed to terminate the USSR once and for all. The US is using both certain individuals’ lust for power, as well as the weak minds of naive Romanians to fuel the quotidian circus, at the same time planning to benefit from the flesh of the common people in upcoming military confrontations, if necessary.
The US’ insistence in planting military bases on the ex-Soviet block territory raises Russia’s appetite for an increasing military collaboration with the East European states, both the American and the Russian weapons supply for the militarization of the Russian sphere of influence, able to turn these territories into open guerilla battlefields like Yugoslavia has been not too long ago.
Even if Moldova was theoretically decoupled from Russian influence, with the occasion of the elections set to take place on the 6-th of March, it will never return to the “mother country”, like the Romanian governors who shamelessly quote from the CIA’s memoirs want to make us believe.
Moldova will never be able to become a naturally integrated part of Romania, simply because the present political realities of the 21-st century do not allow this any longer.
The scenarios that are played now in Moldova simply seek to turn it into another star in the huge American constellation, hungrily swallowed and then placed on the American flag amongst other easy captures.
Completely blinded by their historical lethargy and also by the US’ brainwashing technique constantly broadcast on the Romanian TV channels recently “freed” by CNN, which, besides a fierce anti-communism, promotes a dangerous policy of fueling nationalist pro-Moldavian and at the same time anti-Hungarian feelings, Romanians find themselves ravaged by memories steadily evoked for them by the US’ manipulators.
Daily staging harmful scenarios in the internal policy of Romania, the above-mentioned manipulators aim to create political turmoil, suitable background for a failure of Romania’s integration into the EU in 2007.
Back to Moldova, both newspapers and TV channels constantly recall for the public opinion the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact, referring to the setting up of Romania's Eastern border on the Prut, which would in fact mean requesting the cancellation of the political-territorial consequences of the Peace Treaty of 1947 (the Treaty that legally consecrated this territorial reality), at present the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact being totally irrelevant for the configuration of Romania's borders.
Putin’s Bold Economic Plans for Eastern Europe
But while Romanians crave Moldova, Putin seems to have another plan in mind, completely strange from all the historical ballyhoo carefully highlighted in the Romanian media with the purpose of distracting the Romanian public from the real problems of the contemporary World and of fuelling an artificial nationalist anger that could be useful to the process of US interventions in Russia and also, very importantly, into the fragile EU.
Due to the conservatism and to the distorted information that constantly flood their ears few realize that territories, especially between the states that benefit from weak political strength in the interrelationship with the World, don't mean anything in the current global context without one thing: the energy power.
Apart from the realities of modern war, never declared but waged in more and more key spots on the World map with diverse weapons, from terrorist scenarios to dangerous military technology that hit the very natural defensive system of the Earth, the common people’s lack of knowledge has turned them into human weapons of the global war, actors persuaded by an unknown film director into enjoying the false illusions of prosperity promised by the velvet revolutions.
Considering the realities of the present international context, Putin seems to think fueling the US' Cold War dream of staging orange revolutions in some states in the former USSR, in order to give to the US the sensation that they are miraculously and finally able to advance forward, straight into the den of their secular enemy: the Kremlin - (see the anti-Fradkov-Putin demonstrations the US keeps staging in Russia).
All these unbelievable political events occur while Putin, in the backstage, seems to pull the economic threads of all these neighbouring freshly orange states.
The proofs are his latest diplomatic interventions in Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Serbia and the Kaliningrad region, expressions of his economic view on Russia’s need of a buffer zone of stable and friendly countries around it.
Concretely, the Russian president proposes military cooperation with all the states mentioned above, as well as economic collaboration in the energy sphere as it follows:
The Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will visit Kiev to discuss with Ukraine issues of common interest like the presence of Russia's Black Sea Fleet on Ukrainian territory, the Transdniestrian settlement, interaction in the fuel and energy sector of both states, as well as the issue of military collaboration.
Russia regards its Kaliningrad exclave as a tool for the promotion of Russian-EU economic integration, staging reasons to defend its borders, like the recent scandal of a major drug trafficking channel meant to deliver cocaine “all over Russia”, drug dealers that were skillfully trapped by the Drug police of the Kaliningrad Region, the Russian media says.
Russia’s proposals are to resume construction of the second Bulgarian nuclear power plant (Belene) within the next three months, to boost the oil and gas trade with Hungary, as well as to take part in the development of the economy of Serbia, including the process of privatization, the Russian leadership emphasizing the need for more developed contacts in the energy and gas sphere with Serbia and Montenegro and also in the banking sector, with Russia proposing the formation of joint banks with the two ex-Yugoslavian states.
For Romania, besides the joint project calling for the modernization of a large-capacity thermal power plant, the Russian leadership has prepared to call into operation the second unit of the nuclear plant Cernavoda and also to complete the unfinished work at the third and the forth units of the nuclear plant, work that the initiators and managers of the nuclear project (Canada and the US) have deliberately put on hold for a decade and a half.
15 years after the anti-communist revolution, the Cernavoda nuclear plant finds itself in the awkward situation that none of the 4 units remaining in the construction phase after Ceausescu’s disappearance have been finalized.
The only unit ever called into operation was inaugurated during Ceausescu's time and now provides about 10% of Romania’s electricity requirements, saving millions of dollars in oil imports.
Russia’s Need for a Change in its External Policy
Putin’s “orange revolution” scheme, eagerly applied by the US in Russia’s important sphere of influence, could probably be designed to complicate the enemy, in order to gain time to fortify the BRIC alliance while keeping a vigilant eye on Russia’s sphere of influence, at the same time trying to spread Russia’s tentacles all over the World in search of oil (see South America) and for gold (see South Africa).
It could be an emergency scheme being applied by Russia, after the Berlin wall that, for four decades, protected the two Cold War foes from painful clashes, has crashed.
For more than a year now, due to the coming into force of the harmful treaties Putin’s predecessors have recklessly signed with the US, the clashes between the interests of the two superpowers occurring on ex-Soviet territory (see Georgia and the Baltics), an emergency change in the policy of Kremlin has become a must.
The goal of this new Russian external policy line that promises neither to be fruitful nor devoid of risks, is to acquire a decent level of leverage to allow the Russian president to raise his voice when it comes to crucial issues for his country, internationally.
After all, who was the one that said YES to the orange revolution last fall and who said a couple of years ago that his wildest dream is to see Venezuela?
These both events (the orange revolution in Ukraine and Putin's visit to Venezuela) occurred almost simultaneously.
The strikingly coincidental timing has put a big question mark on the whole Ukraine operation, which, most of the press agreed, occurred with Putin's consent.
Putin probably wants to complicate the chessboard game, thinking that he could gain something from all this, as it is hard to believe that while his buddy Chavez sings communist songs into Bush’s ears, accompanied by Lula and Castro, Putin isn’t able to guard his most important neighbouring territories from the US' scenarios.
On the other hand, it appears that Putin has now considered enticing Bush to attack Iran. In this moment Putin looks like nothing but a catalyst of the Iran conflict, which, it's true, was lingering there on the US' military agenda for a long time.
However, Putin had no interest in hastening the US' operation in Iran, knowing very well that if the US manages to link Iran to the EU by a gas pipeline, the diplomatic efforts he has performed all these years with the (almost achieved) purpose of trying to draw Western Europe by his side, will simply fall apart.
All these events seem to have been carefully planed and, if not all, at least a large part of them could have been discussed with Bush in advance.
Putin's Hermetic Medium Term Plan
Threatening to regain Russia’s economic presence in Iraq, Putin’s plan could therefore be to try to trap the US in the Middle East. Russia has announced its intentions to resume work on certain Iraqi-based projects during a Russian-Arab Business Council session, in Beirut, Lebanon.
Worth mentioning is that the US is already trapped in Iraq and that to conquer Iran is an even tougher task, considering the religious convictions of the Iranian population.
Lately, Putin hasn proved willing to ease neither the nuclear stance on Iran nor the arms sales to Syria, although he probably could do that, in exchange for asking the US for more observance of the borders of Russia’s sphere of influence. But it looks like Putin prefers to ally with South America instead of defending his own backyard.
Russia’s almost defiant position is very interesting, considering the calculus Putin has made as far as Iran’s fate and ending with the announcement that he plans to visit Iran himself. Conscious of the fact that he won’t be able to defend Iran from the US’ aggression alone, he planed to hand over Iran’s defense problem to India and China, just like it did with Kazakhstan, waking up the appetite of India and China for alliance with Russia. India and China have been therefore enticed with Iranian oil and gas resources, the price the two Asian states are now asked to pay being to guard Iran from US aggression.
The concrete project Russia is hasting to forge now is the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline, meant to supply India with Iranian gas. A fierce economic-geopolitical battle between the US and Russia is in full fling there, as India is also studying the American backed Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan alternate gas pipeline project, which is scheduled to be extended also to China.
Significantly, Chinese state oil company Sinopec operates the Iranian Yadavaran field, for which it signed in November 2004 an agreement to buy oil and gas from Iran and to develop the oil field.
The prospect of Beijing increasing its reliance on Iranian energy sparked concern in Washington, as the US was spearheading international efforts to curb Iran's nuclear programme.
On the other hand, as a result of a deal Iran has signed in Delhi, now India holds a 20% stake in Yadavaran, Iran 30%, while China retains its existing 50% share.
At the same time Putin tries to achieve the equilibrium of forces between Russia and the Asian powers, taking care to keep China on tenterhooks with the promised oil pipeline branch to Daging.
According to the facts above and considering the hypothesis that Putin intends to entice the US into Iran, as the Iraq experience has shown that the US doesn’t have many chances to win any war it starts in the Middle East, the big question that needs an answer is: why Bush considers playing Putin's game?
It could be that Iran has threatened to switch the price of its oil into Euros, a move that the American market couldn't bear and so the US will be forced to play the Iranian card with all the risks that derive from it. The US might win, but it also might lose, if not the war with Syria and Iran in itself, at least a large amount of money, human and moral capital, as it constantly does in Iraq.
Meanwhile, drawing a red herring across the path of the US’ plans, Putin probably hopes to gain the necessary leverage to provide him the position to be able at some point to demand the USSR back, as it is hard to believe that he is as fond of the Latin beauties, as to prefer them to the indigenous ones, so to speak...
It is hard to say what a political leader has in mind and by now no clear trend in the Russian external policy has crystallized yet, so it is difficult to draw a safe prognostic on Putin's medium term plan.
The EU Response to the US’ Tough Stance
However, what is clear is that the US does anything in its power to hinder Putin’s efforts to restore the power of the USSR and it does that by any means.
The US hence tries to create useful leverage in order to keep the EU close for an eventual military intervention that could be needed in the Middle East, against the freshly restored Lebanon-Syria-Iran axis.
The US is keen to demonstrate to the EU how vulnerable that is, proving that while it is not even able to ratify its own constitution, it's only natural that the current pro-Russian regimes in France and Germany can be replaced anytime with more polite and cooperative ones, definitely more receptive to the American cause.
The US presses the EU with the decreasing value of the dollar, creating huge problems in the European economic core, from the temporary destabilization of the European market, to the unavoidable increase in unemployment, to protests and ultimately to generalized political chaos.
In response, especially that Bush visits Europe this week, the EU leaders have to be quiet and yield (it is hard to estimate how much) to US' pressure.
They will certainly simulate at least some cordial gestures meant to show their willingness to cooperate with the US and implicitly against Russia in key issues concerning tough spots on the World map, like the fiery Middle East.
Just like it did in Haiti, France has already expressed its solidarity with the orange revolution set to take place in Lebanon.
Last Week the Kyoto Protocol Came into Force
As the generalized war in the Middle East seems unavoidable, Putin has considered speculating in Russia’s interest another ardent American problem: natural disasters, with the aim of pushing for closer ties with the European Union.
Excessively mediated after the Tsunami disaster took place, the American eagerness of flooding South Asia with a wave of sympathy is well known.
The US, being the World’s biggest polluter hasn’t agreed to sign the Kyoto protocol for internal economic reasons, a weakness in Bush’s policy that couldn’t escape the attention of the speculative Russian president.
Making the best of the juncture, Russia has hence stated that the time had come to monitor approaching disasters from space, proposing the concrete establishment of such a system.
The Russian website RIA Novosti announced that “Russia has proposed the establishment of a global international system to monitor the Earth's surface from space” and that “this year the European Space Agency together with Italy's National Institute for Nuclear Physics and a number of the country's universities plans to launch a project to study new ways to predict earthquakes from space”.
“Importantly, there is not only the science and technology to do this, but also a political basis: the interaction mechanism contained in the Kyoto protocol.” was underlined in the article.
The US’ steady opposition to Russia’s proposal of building a joint space shield together with the EU is well known.
Like Bush’s aggressive intervention in South Asia, which relied on the earthquake alibi, Russia's promising program of allegedly predicting locations where and when a natural disaster will occur (named the Vulkan system) is in fact a clever attempt at legalization of the Russian-EU space military collaboration, a skillful diplomatic trick the Russian leadership has trapped the Bush administration into, in response to the Tsunami events.
However, being pretty vast and requiring the recall of the progress both Russia and the US have made in the military sphere, this topic would require a separate article.
REFERENCES:
ROMANIA'S RELATIONS WITH THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA
http://studint.ong.ro/moldova.htm
* Putin’s Bold Economic Plans for Eastern Europe
DIVERSE AGENDA OF RUSSIAN AND UKRAINIAN FOREIGN MINISTERS' TALKS IN KIEV
http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=5428465&startrow=31&date=2005-02-18&do_alert=0
HUGE DRUG CHANNEL BLOCKED IN RUSSIA
http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=5424853&startrow=1&date=2005-02-17&do_alert=0
Bulgaria to Resume Nuclear Plant Construction Within Three Months - Official
http://www.bgnewsnet.com/story.php?lang=en&sid=19462
RUSSIA HOPES TO WIN BULGARIAN NUCLEAR POWER PLANT CONTRACT
http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=5365297&startrow=1&date=2005-02-01&do_alert=0
RUSSIA BOOSTS FUEL AND ENEGY SUPPLIES TO HUNGARY
http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=159&msg_id=5424316&startrow=1&date=2005-02-17&do_alert=0
SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO, RUSSIA'S STRATEGIC PARTNER IN THE BALKANS
http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=159&msg_id=5420885&startrow=1&date=2005-02-16&do_alert=0
Cernavoda Units 1 and 2 -Cernavoda, Romania
http://www.aecl.ca/index.asp?layid=3&menuid=215&csid=73
RUSSIA AND ROMANIA TO IMPLEMENT JOINT PROJECTS IN ENERGY SPHERE
http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=159&msg_id=5414255&startrow=1&date=2005-02-15&do_alert=0
* Putin's Hermetic Medium Term Plan
PUTIN TO VISIT IRAN
http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=5430525&startrow=1&date=2005-02-19&do_alert=0
Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline deal to be finalized
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2005-02/20/content_2596746.htm
India finds a $40bn friend in Iran
http://atimes01.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/GA11Df07.html
China to develop Iran oil field
http://www.google.ro/url?sa=U&start=1&q=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3970855.stm&e=7317
The Real Reasons Why Iran is the Next Target: The Emerging Euro-denominated International Oil Marker
http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/CLA410A.html
* Last week the Kyoto protocol came into force
DISASTERS ON EARTH CAN ONLY BE FORECAST FROM SPACE
http://en.rian.ru/rian/index.cfm?prd_id=160&msg_id=5414544&startrow=41&date=2005-02-15&do_alert=0
posted by NERDMANN at 1:49 PM
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