Monday, January 10, 2005

The Charity War

~by Veronica Bicer



Treated with coolness by India and rejected by China, unable to enforce its terrorist policy in the Asian states and fearing a continuously developing Asia and a sham Russia under Putin, the American leadership has decided that the time has come for a rapid and bold intervention, meant to bring to an end the “undiscipline” that has manifested in the World during the year that has just ended.

A China standing firmly on its own feet, with an enviable economic growth rate, a powerful military structure and being at the same time not only in complete political disagreement with the US, but also a reliable energy partner of Russia and Venezuela, could not have been destabilized without infiltration of its sphere of influence.

Dealing with an incorruptible China, in the aftermath of the US’ insistence for a “free” and “democratic” Taiwan, a goal doomed to failure due to China’s ambition of preserving its sphere of influence, the US has attempted to buy its Asian neighbours.

Said and done. Following the disastrous events in South Asia and relying on the same kind of machinations and on the same type of people it uses for keeping the EU disassembled, the US has toyed with the modality and the amount of the financial aid it is willing to offer to the victims of the catastrophe, in order to create the necessary alibi for starting its “charity” march in Southern Asia.

US’ PROPOSAL FOR A GLOBAL TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM

The US’ alibi for populating the area with American military was Southern Asia’s need for a tsunami warning system. Following the disastrous Asian events, the Western superpower has decided to move on several fronts towards the implementation of a global tsunami warning system.

Senator Joe Lieberman proposed legislation to have the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) establish a system of sensors throughout the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic oceans and the Caribbean Sea, the implementation of the warning system requiring the co-operation of other states in the area.

The US hence hopes to cover all of the East Coast, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea with its warning system, all those areas being unprotected now.

On the other hand, G.W. Bush, in an excess of sympathy for the victims of the catastrophe, has announced his intentions to visit India this year.

US’ TOOLS INFILTRATED IN THE UN STRUCTURES

US-infiltrated individuals in the structures of the UN (like the freshly appointed Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, the Norwegian Jan Egeland) have successfully played the role dictated from Washington, their spicy rhetoric being aimed to denigrate the very UN institution and therefore to facilitate the implementation of the US’ plan to bypass the UN, just like the US did in 2003, when the Bush administration announced the invasion of Iraq on its own, relying on the alibi provided by the 9-11 September 2001 “terrorist” attacks.

"Countries were upping the ante, there was a competition almost, and if it hadn't been for Egeland's comment, that may not have happened," Mr. Heinbecker, director of the Laurier Centre for Global Relations, Governance and Policy at Wilfrid Laurier University from Waterloo, Ontario said.

Allegedly inflamed by Jan Egeland’s rhetoric, the US, through the agency of the British Chancellor Gordon Brown, rapidly announced the need for a so-called “Marshall Plan” not only for South Asia, but for Africa and other third world countries as well and also the setting up of “the group to aid tsunami disaster”: US-Japan-India-Australia, formed immediately after the cataclysm, outside the UN’s jurisdiction.

Jan Egeland has practically prepared the scene for the US’ charity show. Following Mr. Egeland’s comments, the US has raised its contribution to $350-million, “partly by a desire to show that it and not the United Nations would lead the relief and rebuilding effort” Mr. Heinbecker pointed out.

WHAT’S AT STAKE IN SOUTH ASIA?

But what is the stake of this “charity” operation the US eagerly performs? As ridiculous as it might sound, it is the usual usual, oil.

The only Asian state belonging to this group, India, the country which suffered the biggest losses and also a member state of the BRIC (Brazilia-Russia-India-China) alliance, announced immediately after the occurrence of the disaster its willingness to cooperate with the US in helping the victims.

Meanwhile, a bit westwards, the US was stirring up another conflict, this time on the South American continent, between Columbia and Venezuela, another key piece in the oil equation - ally of Brazil, Russia and China in the energy deal - where tension escalated over the alleged kidnapping of a Colombian rebel.

INDIA-US MILITARY COLLABORATION

The coolness the Indian leadership expressed at Rumsfeld’s proposal for a close military collaboration, set to be materialized in the purchase by India of a range of American military hardware including the Patriot anti-missile defense system, has not been received well in Washington and although not completely against this collaboration but still reluctant, India has required one more push in order to fall into Bush’s arms: the Tsunami disaster.

Taking into account that India is the only momentous force in the area that has both common border with China and also the military strength which could allow it to destabilize the continuously developing Chinese state, the US expects India to play a key role on the South Asian political map, relying on India’s strained relations with China.

The US’ persuasive strategy looks appears to be coming into fruition, in part at least. After waves shattered the Indian shores, India suddenly realized that the Russian TU-22 aircraft doesn’t “fit” into the Indian environment, the Indian defense ministry eyeing an appropriate aircraft fit for India’s air navy: the US’ “soft” offer of Orions.

Putin, who himself not long ago lobbied for Indian-Russian ties, hasn’t lost his head upon hearing the news, but was careful enough to threaten India with the resumption of Russia’s military cooperation with Pakistan, suspended for the moment at the request of India.

THE US’ FINANCIAL PROMISES MADE TO INDIA

Blinded by the huge amounts of money the US has promised to wire to India after the catastrophe that occurred on 26-th of December and by the promise to suspend its external debt counting 104 billions of dollars, India seemed to have positively received the US’ appeal.

The US has also enticed India with the help of getting it out of isolation, advertising the “large advantages” of globalization and proposing a broad collaboration in the hi-tech sphere with the state hit by cataclysm, collaboration to be supervised, of course, by the IMF.

The Bush administration, by a subtle persuasive technique, seeks in fact to get India, a country with a growing economic rate, into the slough of the ex-communist countries, asking it to promote more flexible labour laws and a better and more rapidly enforced bankruptcy code.

“If India is to be a global hub, it needs capital account convertibility”, the US’ officials pointed out.

The Economist, the open tribune of Bush’s agenda, hasn’t shrunk from accusing India of being one of the most restrictive countries, scoring 8 on the IMF’s trade restrictiveness index scale.

All in all, constructive thoughts came from the American superpower, but now comes India’s question: where from we will get the energy necessary to build the wonderful world the US is whispering in our ears about?

Probably the one who is able to answer to India’s question is Russia, a state that hasn’t made much noise regarding the latest events in South Asia, but has chosen to sit and think of a strategy to counter the US’ assault on Asia instead.

After a few days, when India played the main role in the relief operations in Sri Lanka and Maldives, in a diplomatic switch it has now unexpectedly changed its position, refusing the international aid.

“India looked not happy with the presence of the US Marines in South Asia”, many analysts pointed out. The group to aid tsunami disaster therefore became unusable, as India, the only state in the group targeted by the Bush administration, has decided to move on.

Already accused (by those who lived the same experience) in 2003 that it does anything in its power to bypass and worse, to compromise the UN missions, the US has decided that it’s not the right time to press and that it can achieve its goals very well even by the humble mediation of the UN.

The US therefore has agreed to disband the group of four and to continue its covert operation under the UN umbrella, marching with Annan and other US puppets by its side.

INDIA-RUSSIA ENERGY DEALS

But while the World was captivated by the unprecedented rush into “do-gooding” and by the inevitable turmoil caused by the bad administration of aid money, India signed two multibillion-dollar energy deals with Iran and Russia on 7-th of January.

India's rapidly growing economy, hungry for energy and demand for oil, is set to grow at an annual rate of at least 3.6 per cent during 2005-07. India imports about 70 per cent of its crude oil, which is what has made the Asian regional superpower consider organizing a roundtable of major oil producing and consuming Asian countries with energy rich Russia and other CIS countries.

India's Oil and Natural Gas Corporation is currently in talks about investing in part of Yukos. Officials from New Delhi's petroleum ministry announced that ONGC might soon place a $2bn bid for a stake in Yuganskneftegas, the main production unit of Yukos.

On the other hand, India sealed a deal to import millions of tons of liquefied natural gas from Iran, yet a Russian partner.

In reality, the US’ concerns were less pointed out towards the lives of the Asians slaughtered in the catastrophe, but more at the prospect of the Chinese and Indian oil companies buying oil and gas assets in Russia - a plan mainly coordinated from the Kremlin – which, although it has made inherent compromises itself, now threatens to change the landscape in which the western oil majors operate.

In response, India and Russia have signed on 3-th of December a Joint Declaration of partnership “taking note of the transformation in the global environment in the recent past”.

ISRO Chairman G Madhavan Nair and Director of Russian Federal Space Agency A Perminov signed accords on outer-space and use of Russian Global Navigational Satellite System (GLONASS)

IRAN: THE STRATEGIC PAWN ON THE ASIAN EUROPEAN CHESSBOARD

Feeling that it loses ground in its energy competition with Russia, the US has manifested its opposition regarding the Iran-India pipeline (Pakistan-Iran-India gas pipeline project), asking Pakistani officials not to approve the gas pipeline project with Iran and pressuring Pakistan to import gas from Qatar instead (see map):

http://www.american.edu/TED/iranpipeline.htm

For now, the US hasn’t received a positive answer from Pakistan, which has told the US that it would be able to ensure safe supply of natural gas to New Delhi from Iran, stressing, however, that it would go ahead with the project with or without India.

Pakistan has been keen on the proposed pipeline for years, but India has been lukewarm given their troubled relations and concerns about security in the Middle-Eastern state.

However, Pakistan, a US ally, could be the key catalyst of the friction in the Russia – Iran – India diplomatic relations.

Even if the construction of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline will be finalized, this pipeline could become, with the help of the US’ intervention in Pakistan or more likely in Iran, the bone of contention in relations between Russia and the above-mentioned Asian states.

One way or another, the US will try to draw Iran by its side, the US’ take over of Iran (the state with the second largest natural gas reserve in the world), being aimed at the erosion not only of Russia’s ties with Asia, but also of Russia’s cordial relations with Europe, as Iran is able to jeopardize Russia’s leading position amongst the EU’s gas suppliers.

Insecure on its presumptive success in Iran, the US is now pushing for an old rival gas pipeline project, scheduled to carry gas from Turkmenistan to India through the Turkmenistan - Afghanistan- Pakistan pipeline owned by the American “Unocal” company, one of the reasons the US is interested in securing Afghanistan (see map):

http://www.ringnebula.com/Oil/Pipeline.htm



CHINA : A GROWING SUPERPOWER

Besides India’s push to ensure its energy supplies, Iran is granting the Indian firms developmental rights in two producing oil fields—Yadavaran and Jufeyr, “China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is eyeing a $13bn takeover of Unocal”, according to the Financial Times online publication.

According to the same source, the gas deal India has just made with Iran follows last year's $70bn Iranian gas accord for China's Sinopec to take 250m tonnes of LNG over 30 years and a 50 per cent stake in the Iranian Yadavaran oilfield.

At the end of the year 2004, the US found itself isolated in the Western hemisphere, facing a more and more developing China framed by a relatively stable and united South Asian zone.

The unity on the South Asian continent has been further pushed by China’s action plan to step up economic cooperation between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China.

An ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (FTA) is also in the making to integrate 2 billion people by 2010, rivaling the world's richest FTAs , such as the EU and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

CONCLUSION:

With the BRIC coalition already in the pipeline and with Russia’s relative success in securing oil and gas fields in Caucasus, the World energy map suffered notable changes during the year that we have just left behind.

Demonstrating more skill than Bush in moving the chess pieces on the World economic chessboard, Putin’s policy, which has succeeded in rallying the major energy producers to his side, was meant to stir concerns in Washington.

The “charity” war has just begun. Both Russia and the US, the main players in the energy business, are now making opulent offers to the key Asian states, with the purpose of draw them to their sides, and whether it is oil and gas, grain, military aircraft or just a hi-tech promise, the deal is still called a “charitable offer”.

After the TV channels around the World bombarded us with horrifying images picturing the Asian cataclysm and, on the other side, with touching images picturing the American soldier who has just rescued a wounded little girl from under the debris, the common spectator watching the horrifying-heavenly show cannot help asking one question:

If the US won’t be able to enforce its American dream and rescue the planet from normality with a “Marshall Plan” for the Third World and for the rest of it, if the Bush administration will find its global agenda shattered by the World’s opposition, if the imperial American agenda that defies the very realities of the 21-st century will feel threatened, and the Bush administration will consequently feel that it gets drawn, pulled under the turbid waters of the present, will the American leadership choose to take the whole World down with it?



REFERENCES:

Foreknowledge of A Natural Disaster: Washington was aware that a deadly Tidal Wave was building up in the Indian Ocean

http://globalresearch.ca/articles/CHO412C.html

India, US could gain from tsunami diplomacy

http://www.expressindia.com/fullstory.php?newsid=40341

1. THE US-PROPOSAL OF A GLOBAL TSUNAMI WARNING SYSTEM

US plans global tsunami warning system

http://212.2.162.45/news/story.asp?j=168213563&p=y68zy448x&n=168214524

Bush may visit India this year

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/980905.cms

2. THE US’ TOOLS INFILTRATED IN THE UN STRUCTURES

Secretary-General Appoints Jan Egeland of Norway New Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs

http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2003/sga840Rev1.doc.htm

Stingy Americans? U.N. official's comment hits nerve

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/12/28/stingy.americans.ap/

Global aid push 'incredible'

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20050106.wts-aid06/BNStory/International/

UN in quest to prove its worth

http://www.theage.com.au/news/Asia-tsunami/UN-in-quest-to-prove-its-worth/2005/01/07/1104832299971.html?oneclick=true

UN chief stunned at 'utter destruction' as tsunami toll rises

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/126322/1/.html

India defends refusal to accept foreign aid

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/90300afe-5f3d-11d9-8cca-00000e2511c8.html

A Marshall Plan for South Asia

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-ed-tsunami2jan02,0,900358.story

US, Japan, Australia and India to form disaster relief coalition: Bush

http://sg.news.yahoo.com/041229/1/3pjpf.html

Core group on relief disbanded

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...show/982917.cms

3. WHAT’S AT STAKE IN SOUTH ASIA?:

Putin leads BRIC (Brazil, Russia, China, India), takes control of oil assets in Russia, associates with Western Europe – what’s next!

http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/12-24b-04.asp

Venezuela-Colombia tensions rise

http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20050106-084211-9940r.htm

4. INDIA-US MILITARY COLLABORATION

Rumsfeld to Visit India to Discuss Arms Sales

http://www.voanews.com/english/2004-12-07-voa45.cfm

India, Russia differ on deal

http://www.thestatesman.net/page.news.php?clid=2&theme=&usrsess=1&id=65382

A US offer Delhi can't refuse

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/FL03Df04.html

5. THE US’ FINANCIAL PROMISES MADE TO INDIA

Globalization must bring benefits to all Indians – P.Chidambaram

http://pib.nic.in/release/release.asp?relid=6382

The coming US – India business partnership will be the biggest surprise of this decade – H1B visas for Indian professionals to increase

http://www.indiadaily.com/editorial/01-07d-05.asp

India and the Indian Ocean: From isolation to multilateralism

http://nation.ittefaq.com/artman/publish/article_15238.shtml

6. INDIA-RUSSIA ENERGY DEALS

India looks to Russia and Iran for energy

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/f17f15d2-611a-11d9-af5a-00000e2511c8.html

India plans Asian energy roundtable with Russia, CIS countries

http://www.webindia123.com/news/showdetails.asp?id=58654&cat=India

India, Russia sign joint declaration for strategic partnership

http://www.teamindia.net/news/index.php?action=fullnews&id=40832

7. IRAN: THE STRATEGIC PAWN ON THE ASIAN EUROPEAN CHESSBOARD

Iran to India Natural Gas Pipeline: Implications for Conflict Resolution & Regionalism in India, Iran, and Pakistan

http://www.american.edu/TED/iranpipeline.htm

Oil diplomacy pays off, India signs mega LNG import deal with Iran

http://www.indianexpress.com/full_story.php?content_id=62321

India and Iran in gas export deal

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4155597.stm

US opposes Pak-Iran pipeline

http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?NewsCode=28509&NewsKind=Business%20%26%20Economy

THE WORLD DOMINANCE GAME- EURASIA -Turkmenistan - Afghanistan - Pakistan Pipeline

http://www.iranmania.com/News/ArticleView/Default.asp?NewsCode=28509&NewsKind=Business%20%26%20Economy

Afghanistan, Turkmenistan Oil and Gas, and the Projected Pipeline

http://ist-socrates.berkeley.edu/~pdscott/q7.html

8. CHINA : A GROWING SUPERPOWER

China and India raise the stakes

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/b9ff6f9e-611a-11d9-af5a-00000e2511c8.html

Analysis: Russia, China, And The Politics Of Energy

http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2005/01/4d9941d1-50ad-4a46-8dc0-cc7cc9a6d512.html

China hopes for stronger energy cooperation with Russia

http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=1623351&PageNum=0

The fault lines that could shake Asia

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Economamy/GA07Dk01.html

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